Win or go home
FROM 32 to 16 and now 8.
The FIBA World Cup 2023 is now on its most exciting part with only eight teams — Germany, Lithuania, Canada, Italy, Latvia, Serbia, Slovenia and United States — left to vie for the coveted Dr. James Naismith Trophy.
Of the eight, only two teams are still unbeaten in five matches: Lithuania and Germany.
The remaining six other campaigners enter the quarterfinal round with 4-1 records.
Notably absent is 2019 champion and world No. 1 Spain, whose heartbreaking 85-88 defeat to Canada in their make-or-break game in Okinawa sent them packing home.
It’s now win or go home.
Italy vs United States
Easily one of the most interesting matchups in these quarterfinals is the battle between world No. 10 Italy and five-time champion United States.
The Simone Fontecchio-led Italy topped its group with a resounding 73-57 victory over Puerto Rico at the Smart Araneta Coliseum.
Defense is a big reason for Italy’s strong showing so far, as they limited Serbia to 76 points –28.7 points below their average of 104.7 — and Dominican Republic to just 57 points– down from their average of 92 points.
Italy’s quarterfinal opponent will be the United States, which suffered a 104-110 upset loss to Lithuania at the end of the group play.
And while the Lithuania-US game didn’t matter much for both quarterfinalists, the result sent the Americans into an early showdown against the Italians.
Back in 2019, the United States was relegated to a seventh-place finish and coach Steve Kerr knows the Americans cannot afford another slow start like the one they had against the Lithuanians to avoid another major embarrassment.
Minnesota Timberwolves star Anthony Edwards, who leads the Americans with 20.2 points a game, and Los Angeles Lakers star Austin Reaves are again expected to produce big numbers as the Americans look to bounce back in style.
At the center of attention will be American-Italian star Paolo Banchero of the Orlando Magic.
The reigning NBA “Rookie of the Year” was invited to play for Italy but decided to join the United States instead.
Overall, the United States holds a 12-2 all-time advantage over Italy.
My pick: United States.
Germany vs Latvia
In Okinawa, Germany and Dennis Schroder are doing it all.
Schroder is putting up huge numbers of 19.8 points and 6.8 assists per game in Germany’s five-game winning streak that included victories of Tokyo Olympics bronze medalist Australia (85-82), Finland (101-75) and Asian heavyweight Japan (81-63) in the first round; and Georgia (100-73) and Slovenia (100-71) in the second round.
The 29-year-old point guard of the Toronto Raptors was Germany’s brightest star in ther vengeful victory over Slovenia and Luka Doncic as he finished with 24 points and 10 assists in only 25 minutes.
Mo Wagner (13.0 ppg, 6.0 rpg) and Daniel Theis (11.0 ppg) are the other primary weapons for Germany, which made it to the quarterfinals for the first time since 2006.
Latvia’s finest moment came in their 104-84 win over Brazil where Andrejs Grazulis came through with 24 points on 9-of-12 shooting from two-point range.
But several other players have also stepped up in the other victories of Latvia, which reached the quarterfinals in their debut.
Overall, Germany holds a 3-2 advantage over Latvia, winning the last matchup at the FIBA EuroBasket 2011.
My pick: Germany
Canada vs Slovenia
Two legitimate NBA stars are the biggest reasons why Canada and Slovenia are now in the quarterfinals.
Oklahoma Cty Thunder superstar Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is clearly the man of the hour in Canada’s king-size 88-85 upset win over defending champion Spain.
The 25-year-old NBA All Star from Toronto finished with 30 points, seven assists, four rebounds and three steals in an all-around performance that helped Canada reach the quarterfinals for the first time since 1994.
For Slovenia, it’s Luka Doncic.
A four-time NBA All Star, Doncic is doing it all with team-highs 26.4 points, 7.4 rebounds and 6.8 assists in Slovenia’s four wins over Venezuela ( 100-85), Georgia ( 88-67), Cape Verde (92-77) and Australia ( 91-80) and loss to Germany (71-100) in Okinawa.
The supporting cast are just as good: Kelly Olynyk and Dillon Brooks of Canada and Mike Tobey and Kiemen Prepelic of Slovenia.
Slovenia and Canada have faced off just once with the the Europeans winning in the 2008 FIBA Olympic Qualifying Tournament.
My pick: Canada
Lithuania vs Serbia
The all-European quarterfinal showdown will pir Lithuania and its 6-11 star Jonas Valanciunas (13.6 points, 9.2 rebounds and 1.2 blocks) against Serbia and its 7-0 giant Nikola Milutinov (14.0 points, 9.6 rebounds and 1.0 block).
The Lithuanian’s upset win over the United States — their fifth straight in the 32-team tournament — should be enough motivation, although Serbia is also buoyed by a 112-79 victory over the Karl-Anthony Towns-led Dominican Republic for a 4-1 record.
Equally interesting is the three-point battle, with Lithuania hitting a tournament-high 46.4 percent from beyond the arc against Serbia’s 37.6 percent.
Other players to watch are Rokas Jokubaitis ( 12.8 ppg) and Ignas Brazdeikis ( 11.4 ppg) of Lithuania and NBA veteran Bogdan Boganovic (18.4 ppg) and Nikola Jovic (11.2 ppg) of Serbia.
Serbia bounced back from their loss to Italy to reach the top eight for the fourth straight time, including second place in 2014.
As per FIBA, Lithuania and Serbia played only once World Cup history, when Linas Kleiza;s 33 points powered the Baltic nation to a 99-88 win in the bronze medal game in Istanbul back in 2010
My pick: Serbia
In the semis, the winner of the Lithuania-Serbia match will battle the victor of the Canada-Slovenia encounter, while the winner of the Italy-United States showdown will meet the victor of the Germany-Latvia matchup in the semis.
It should be fun.
NOTES.— Happy trip to my mom Virgie Andaya, who left for the United States to visit my brother Joseph and his family in Orange, CA.
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