Alert Level 2 for NCR in Feb.?

THE Department of Health (DOH) yesterday said it is still too early to say whether the National Capital Region (NCR) could de-escalate to Alert Level 2 next month.

Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire reiterated that the peak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) surge was projected for the end of January or by the middle of February.

Active cases in Metro Manila were also expected to double by the second week of February.

“It’s too early to declare or to say to our people that we will shift or de-escalate to Alert Level 2,” Vergeire said.

The NCR and 50 more areas are under Alert Level 3 until the end of the month.

Dr. Ted Herbosa, former DOH undersecretary and National Task Force Against COVID-19 special adviser, earlier said Metro Manila could downgrade to Alert Level 2 come February since most of the cases in the region were outside NCR. Also, there were fewer infections and fewer cases were going to hospital.

However, Vergeire said although cases were going down in the region, it should be taken into consideration that not all who undergo antigen testing are being reported to the DOH.

“So we are closely monitoring… sa ngayon hindi pa masasabi if we can de-escalate by the middle of February dito sa NCR,” she said.

In a related development, OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David reported that NCR’s COVID-19 average daily attack rate (ADAR) dropped anew to 93.82 percent, but nonetheless remained on a severe level.

NCR’s ADAR was at 93.82 percent Friday, which decreased from 111.47 percent last Wednesday.

ADAR pertains to the incidence showing the average number of new cases in a period per 100,000 people.

David said aside from NCR, Baguio City also had a severe ADAR at 152.65 percent.

He added surges of COVID-19 cases were seen in Baguio City, Iloilo CIty, Cebu City, Lapu Lapu, Tacloban, Davao City and Cagayan de Oro.

The following cities meanwhile had very high ADAR: Iloilo City (71.62 percent), Cebu City (48.88 percent), Lapu-Lapu (44.20 percent), Tacloban (41.88 percent), Angeles City (37.53 percent), Lucena (31.45 percent), Davao City (30.82 percent) and Cagayan de Oro (27.74 percent).

David also indicated that NCR had a “high” reproduction number at 1.38.

Reproduction rate refers to the number of people infected by one case. A reproduction number that is below 1 indicates that the transmission of the virus is slowing down.

The said cities also had a very high reproduction number, with Davao City being the highest at 4.04, according to David.