Salceda: We can’t be complacent
HOUSE committee on ways and means chairman and Albay Rep. Joey Sarte Salceda has said that the country’s emergence out of economic recession is “a positive development that says we’re still in the game” for 7% gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2021.
“But it’s no indication that people are having it easier economically,” Salceda said as he underscored that the fast rollout of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine doses and mitigating measures against the Delta variant will determine whether the country sustains recovery on the second half of 2021.
“If we are able to stop Delta in its tracks and avoid the kind of surges Indonesia and other ASEAN (Association of South East Asian Nations) neighbors are experiencing, we will perform very strongly in H2,” Salceda said.
“That will also require quick vaccination, funding for genome sequencing, effective testing, treatment, and isolation, and some rhyme and reason to our contact tracing efforts. We have to get it right. If we do, we will permanently be out of the hole. If we get the health side wrong, we’re still very much at risk of contracting again,” Salceda warned.
“So, we can’t be complacent. Being out of the recession simply means we stopped our streak of negative growth. Our economy is still smaller now than it was pre-pandemic. We’re not yet out of the hole, so we have no space or reason for complacency,” Salceda said.
National Statistician Dennis Mapa announced an 11.8% growth from April to June, reversing the 3.9% plunge logged in the first three months of 2021.
The latest figure meets the expected double-digit growth by the economic team and analysts.
“The development is positive because it beats consensus estimates by a fully 1.4 percentage points. That’s not nothing. But we will see some roadblocks ahead, so we have to keep plowing forward with vaccination and other health measures. There is no longer any trade-off between health and the economy here. If you can boost health, you will see the economy recovery,” Salceda commented.
“So we have to get the health aspects right so that we don’t always resort to the nuclear option of an ECQ,” Salceda said.
Salceda also emphasized that the lockdown over the National Capital Region (NCR) and other nearby provinces will bear down on economic performance and “other hard lockdowns could hurt us back to the negative territory in the second half.”
Earlier last week, Salceda estimated that the NCR enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) will cost around P112.69 billion per week, while the imposition of a Calabarzon-wide ECQ will cost an additional P89.9 billion per week in foregone GDP.
Salceda also warned that the NCR ECQ will cost 439,000 jobs, while the Calabarzon ECQ will lose another 219,000 jobs, for a total net job loss of 658,000.
This estimate approximates the NEDA estimate of 440,000 jobs lost during the ECQ in NCR, Salceda added.
