Lacuna

“Isko, Lacuna, Versoza: Populism, Continuity, and Change in Manila’s Race”

January 19, 2025 People's Tonight 1394 views

The HKPH Public Opinion and Research Center, in collaboration with the Hong Kong-based Asia Research Center, has unveiled the latest findings of its independent, non-commissioned survey on Manila’s mayoral race. As the 2025 elections approach, the city’s political arena has become a battleground for three key contenders: former Mayor Isko Moreno, incumbent Mayor Honey Lacuna, and Congressman Sam Versoza. The results highlight a dynamic and closely watched competition for leadership in the capital.

Former Mayor Isko Moreno currently leads the race with a 46% voter preference, reflecting his continued popularity despite a controversial detour into national politics. Moreno’s charismatic persona and populist strategies resonate with a substantial portion of Manila’s electorate. However, lingering concerns over his abrupt departure for an unsuccessful presidential bid in 2022, along with criticisms of unfinished projects during his tenure, pose challenges to solidifying broader support.

Incumbent Mayor Honey Lacuna trails with 31% of voter support, maintaining a strong position as she campaigns for re-election. After rising to the mayoralty from the vice mayor’s office, Lacuna has focused her administration on addressing urban challenges and fostering stability. Her hands-on approach and dedication to continuity have endeared her to many voters. As her campaign intensifies, her team remains confident in the potential for a late surge in support.

Congressman Sam Versoza, a fresh face in Manila politics, has garnered 15% of voter preference. Known for his innovative campaign strategies and strong connection with younger voters, Versoza has positioned himself as a transformative alternative to traditional candidates. While his outsider status appeals to segments of the electorate eager for change, questions about his experience in Manila’s political landscape remain a hurdle in expanding his reach among undecided voters.

The survey reveals that 8% of respondents remain undecided, emphasizing the unpredictability of the race. Steven Su, survey program director at HKPH-ARC, noted the significance of this undecided bloc. “None of the candidates have secured a majority, making these voters pivotal in shaping the final outcome,” Su remarked.

Su further elaborated on the survey’s reflection of voter priorities. “This race represents a fascinating crossroads for Manileños: populism, continuity, and change. Former Mayor Isko Moreno exemplifies populist leadership, resonating with those drawn to dynamic and results-driven governance. Mayor Honey Lacuna embodies stability and continuity, appealing to voters who value steady leadership and incremental progress. Congressman Versoza, meanwhile, represents a call for change, attracting younger and disenfranchised voters eager for fresh ideas,” Su explained. “The race is exciting and should be closely watched as the election draws nearer.”

The survey, conducted January 8-15, 2024 among 1,800 registered voters from Manila’s six districts, employed a randomized sampling method and has a margin of error of ±2%. The results offer a compelling snapshot of voter sentiment as the city approaches a critical electoral milestone. With preferences still in flux and undecided voters holding the key, the Manila mayoral race remains wide open, ensuring a high-stakes contest as election day draws closer.

AUTHOR PROFILE