THE Department of Health (DOH) yesterday maintained that the National Capital Region (NCR) remains at low risk classification for COVID-19, despite a report from OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David that the NCR’s risk classification for COVID-19 has escalated from low risk to moderate risk based on their own metrics.

In an advisory, the DOH noted that while Metro Manila showed a positive two-week growth rate, its average daily attack rate or ADAR is still below six at less than one case per 100,000 population.

“NCR would require at least 818 cases daily for two weeks to reach an ADAR of six cases per 100,000 population,” the health department said.

ADAR pertains to the incidence showing the average number of new cases in a period per 100,000 people.

It also said the region’s healthcare utilization rate remains at low risk. However, infections are still expected at this stage of pandemic wherein most are asymptomatic, mild, or moderate.

The DOH said that an area will be classified as moderate risk if it has a positive two-week growth rate and average daily attack rate of at least six average cases per day per 100,000 population.

David said the NCR’s risk classification for COVID-19 has escalated from low risk to moderate risk based on their own metrics.

“Based on our metrics—this is our metrics and not necessarily the same as the one used by the Department of Health—Metro Manila has moved from low to moderate risk. That being said, again, moderate risk does not translate to an escalation of the alert level because we’re still looking at the healthcare utilization and it’s still very low at this time,” he said.

David noted that NCR’s current ADAR is at 0.99 and may reach 1 by Thursday, June 16. Meanwhile, its reproduction number is “very high” at 1.56, and its weekly positivity rate also increased to 3.3%.

The healthcare utilization rate, however, is under the “very low” category at 23%, he added.

The Inter-Agency Task Force of Emerging Infectious Diseases had approved recommendations to place the NCR and other areas under Alert Level 1 from June 16 to June 30.

This despite the reported increases in the number of COVID-19 cases in the NCR and other locations in the past days.

David supported the decision, adding that there is no need to raise the alert level at present.